A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
