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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still