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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd